Household Savings and Negative Interest Rates

This paper analyses determinants of household savings in a model based on an extension of the disequilibrium savings theory. These extensions follow from the life-cycle, permanent-income and Ricardian-equivalence theories. Based on panel data of 20 countries from the period 2000–2020, fixed-effect least squares estimation procedures are used. The analysis provides evidence that negative interest rates lead to a statistically and economic significant increase in savings. This implies that stimulating household consumption with a monetary policy of negative interest rates is counter-productive. The positive effect of income uncertainty and lagged saving rates gets smaller for negative interest rates, weakening the support for the disequilibrium-savings theory. Larger government deficits increase savings even more when rates are negative, strengthening the Ricardian equivalence effect. The effect of negative interest on the predictions of the life-cycle and permanent-income theories is mixed.

International Macroeconomics: From the Great Financial Crisis to COVID-19, and Beyond

This Mundell–Fleming lecture reviews some of the main developments in international macroeconomics since the early 2000s. It highlights four important areas of progress: (a) on international pricing and invoicing;(b) on sectoral trade and production networks;(c) on the cross-border allocation of capital and the role of global financial intermediaries;(d) on cross-border externalities and prudential policies. It then explores three specific questions, relevant for future research and policy: (a) the implementation of optimal prudential policy via ‘basis control;' (b) recent developments about the US external balance sheet and its ‘exorbitant privilege;' and (c) the reform of the International Financial and Monetary System.

Slowbalisation in the Context of US-China Decoupling

While it is too early to confirm the depth and the sustainability of this new trend towards slower globalisation, it may be happening in more domains than we are fully aware of, at least for the near term given the renewed backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine war and the wider use of sanctions globally.